Eventually published in 57 countries, Megatrends sat atop the New York Times best-seller list for more than 2 years and sold over 8 million copies. It’s no wonder that author (and former Assistant Secretary of Education to President Kennedy) John Naisbitt is regarded as one of the world’s leading experts on global economic trend forecasting. With many books and prestigious universities under his belt, he currently spends most of his time teaching in China. You have the chance to see him at the Y on October 8 to discuss his latest research findings and new book, Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future.

Before Wall Street Journal senior writer Tom Herman gets a crack at him on Sunday, we asked Felix Salmon, editor of RGE’s Economonitor blog, to warm him up with a few crystal ball questions. 

One view of the past 6 years or so of economic history is that the injection of hundreds of millions of cheap Chinese laborers into the global labor force was so disinflationary that global central banks found themselves able to create vast amounts of global liquidity without inflation—hence very low interest rates, a global property bubble, the rise of hedge funds, etc. With Chinese wages and global interest rates both now rising, is the party over?

That’s not my view. “Hundreds of millions of cheap Chinese laborers” somewhat recalls the “yellow Peril” of the 19th century. We are at a different party now, and that party has just begun: the global economy is becoming just one economy for the whole world. Forget thinking about China or the US, that’s obsolete, as I describe in my book. In the future economic considerations will not be dealt with between nations but between economic domains. Chinese companies are providing good and cheaper clothing for millions of consumers, while most governments side with their own textile producers, protecting a few thousands jobs at the expense of millions, and that includes the U.S. But despite all hype in the media that China will economically overtake the US in just a few years, make that 40 years, if it ever does.

With the rise of nationalism in Japan and continued strong economic growth in China, whither Sino-Japanese relations and the balance of power in Asia? Will Japan be able to see China as more of an opportunity than a threat?

Japan already sees China as more of an opportunity than a threat. While the political leaders in both countries posture about nationalism, on the ground there have never been more economic or educational joint ventures between the two countries. In Asia, as in most everywhere else, economic considerations continue to overwhelm political considerations.

How important is global warming, how likely is it that the international community is going to be able to do anything about it, and what will be the consequences?

I grew up during the “global cooling” hysteria of the 40s and 50s. I am a skeptic about global warming. In those days the “Ice Age” was upon us; within just a few years, much of the world’s agriculture would be wiped out and many millions of people would starve. As you can see from my new book, I don’t think “hysteria” is too strong a word to apply to the current global warming hype. Warnings that Manhattan will be under five meters of water in a few years have for me a familiar ring. Instead of exaggeration and Armageddon scenarios, we would serve nature better by pursuing a realistic step-by-step program with everyone doing their share. Let me say that whatever the rhetoric, I think that the remedies in any case are so attractive—clean water, clean air—that I think we should get on with it. The peddlers of all the gloom and doom are not helpful in getting the job done.

How important is the rise of Islamism, how likely is it that the international community is going to be able to do anything about it, and what will be the consequences?

There is not a “rise of Islamism.” There is a rise of radical Islamists, a rise in Islamic terrorism. I think given the sweep of history this is an aberration, helped by those in the West who in sense celebrate the terrorism by allowing it to run them.

Will any of the Millennium Development Goals ever be met? If so, when?

What are the “Millennium Development Goals”? If these are those from the U.N., you should ask them.

[John Naisbitt: Thriving in a Global Economy: 10/8/06]

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